Statistical forecasting of the technical condition of sewage pipes
author:
ANDRZEJ RAGANOWICZ
No:
5/2020 instal p. 47-51
DOI:
10.36119/15.2020.5.8
The article presents statistical forecasting of the technical condition of stoneware pipes based on the exponential
distribution in connection with convolution product. The convolution product helps to define the survival functions for
cumulative staying times of the sewer pipes in each condition class. The model was calibrated and validated based
on right-censored data. The basis for the forecast were the results of a complete camera inspection carried out in
2000. The deterioration states of the sewer pipes were be quantified using the DWA-M 149-3 system, on a scale of
1-5. Application of the proposed model and calibration procedure allows to determine the necessary scope of
renovation works and the technical life of sewer pipes.
Keywords:
About Authors:
Dr hab. inż. Andrzej Raganowicz – Zweckverband zur Abwasserbeseitigung im Hachinger Tal, Rotwandweg 16 D-82024 Taufkirchen; Corresponding author: a-raganowicz@t-online.de